Xiaomi released MiMo-V2.6-Pro-RL, ranking first among open models on Artificial Analysis's benchmark
Open-weight models hit 62% of enterprise tokens, under 9% of spend
Open-weight models now handle the majority of routed enterprise tokens at a fraction of the cost of frontier models, creating a widening gap between usage volume and revenue that bears directly on AI investment returns. Jefferies strategist Chris Wood's base case is 'massive capital destruction in the US' from the AI investment cycle, as cheaper Chinese open-source models capture token share while the four largest US hyperscalers spend toward roughly $870 billion in capex by 2027.
The full picture
Open-weight models reached approximately 62% of token volume on Vercel's AI Gateway by August 22, 2026, up from 11% in April 2026, while capturing under 9% of spending. Closed models retain roughly two-thirds of dollars spent. Vercel's July data shows open-weight models at 36% of token volume, with Anthropic collecting 65.1% of all gateway spending on only 29.8% of volume, pricing its tokens at 4.4 times the average of all other labs. Chinese-built open models are a subset of the broader open-weight figure, representing about 29% of tokens in June, a number frequently conflated with the total open-weight share. On OpenRouter, top Chinese models processed 36.39 trillion tokens in the week ending July 19, versus 7.39 trillion for top US models. Z.ai's GLM 5.2 had the fastest adoption of any model Vercel tracked in 2026, with daily token volume growing 27x and customer count growing 80x in its first full week. Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.6-Pro-RL, released in October 2026, ranks first among open models on Artificial Analysis's benchmark; it reuses the same base models as V2.5 but applies significantly more reinforcement learning training compute.
How it developed
Jefferies strategist Chris Wood argued the most likely outcome of AI buildout is 'massive capital destruction in the US'
Vercel published analysis showing open-weight models at 36% of July token volume; Anthropic at 65.1% of gateway spending on 29.8% of volume
Vercel AI Gateway data showing open-weight share tripling from April to June published
Sources
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