The Information Machine
Concluded·Day 14·first covered 10 Sep 2026·6 sources

Global AI Compute Projected to Grow Sixfold by 2028, Led by Two Labs

The gist

The projected concentration of compute in two labs, financed through structures reaching hundreds of billions of dollars, creates significant dependencies on revenue projections materializing. Europe's structural compute deficit, combined with data sovereignty constraints, limits its ability to capture the productivity gains ECB scenarios attribute to AI adoption.

The full picture

Altimeter projects global installed AI compute will expand from 18 GW in 2025 to 115 GW by 2028, with the industry potentially adding 43 GW in 2027 alone. OpenAI and Anthropic's combined share of global AI data center compute may rise from 20% to 35% over that period. Dylan Patel estimates each lab will grow from roughly 2 GW entering 2026 to above 5 GW by year end, reaching north of 50 GW each by end of 2028, with the two combined capturing 70-80% of incremental compute. Anthropic committed to up to 1 million Google TPUs through a roughly $200 billion financing structure involving Blackstone, Apollo, Morgan Stanley, and Broadcom, with Fluidstack building the sites. Patel cites Anthropic revenue reaching as high as $50 million per megawatt, with the lab projecting $190-200 billion in 2028 revenue. Jensen Huang stated 400,000 GPUs are planned to come online at Stargate Texas in the coming year. On valuations, Gavin Baker argued that memory makers at 3-5x PE alongside Nvidia at a comparatively low PE cannot both be pricing the same data center spending boom consistently. Europe holds less than 5% of global AI compute capacity versus 75% for the United States, and its data-center capacity shortfall could grow from roughly 3 GW today to 14 GW by 2030.

How it developed
22 September 2026

SB Energy defers planned roughly $50 billion IPO as investors question its $178 billion capex program and OpenAI tenant concentration.

18 September 2026

Altimeter projects global AI compute growing from 18 GW in 2025 to 115 GW by 2028, with OpenAI and Anthropic's combined share rising from 20% to 35%

13 September 2026

Baker argued AI supply-chain equities are cross-sectionally mispriced, with memory makers and Nvidia implying contradictory growth assumptions

11 September 2026

ECB scenarios cited by Draghi show AI could add 0.3-0.4 percentage points to Europe's TFP growth, but Europe holds under 5% of global compute versus 75% for the US

10 September 2026

Patel projects OpenAI and Anthropic each reaching north of 50 GW by end of 2028, capturing 70-80% of incremental compute; Anthropic's $200B financing structure reported

Sources
1 more source
mufgamericas.com
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