Goldman Sachs Research details methodology placing 2026 global AI investment at $1.019 trillion, $581 billion in the US
Following·Day 11·first covered 21 Sep 2026·2 sources
Goldman Sachs Projects $1T+ Global AI Investment in 2026
The gist
AI capital spending at this scale is large enough that a $250 billion surprise in either direction could shift S&P 500 earnings growth by roughly 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman projects US AI investment will grow from 1.8% of GDP to 2.8% by 2028, while the global share rises from 0.9% to 1.4%.
The full picture
Goldman Sachs estimates global AI investment will reach $1.019 trillion in 2026, with $581 billion in the United States, using a methodology that counts spending above hyperscalers' 2022 capital expenditure baseline as AI-specific. The firm also projects Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle will collectively boost AI infrastructure spending by more than 50%, reaching $1.2 trillion in 2027 and $1.4 trillion in 2028. Alongside these spending figures, Goldman Sachs data shows global earnings estimates for 2026 have risen from roughly $52 to over $61 per share, while 2027 estimates jumped from approximately $56 to over $71 per share, reversing the typical pattern of analyst forecasts drifting lower over time.
How it developed
Goldman Sachs raises AI infrastructure spending forecast for major tech firms to $1.2 trillion in 2027 and $1.4 trillion in 2028
Goldman Sachs data showing rising global earnings estimates and projected AI investment exceeding $1 trillion in 2026 reported
Sources
Rohan Paul Twitter
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